To help meet the needs of a growing city, Columbia has entered into a partnership with the University of Missouri to develop a computer model that will predict population growth.

Within the next year, the university’s Community Policy Analysis Center, or CPAC, will work with a community advisory panel to create a model capable of forecasting how economic factors will affect the city’s growth.

Assistant City Manager Tony St. Romaine said the model is part of a smart-growth planning effort to determine what infrastructure the city will need to provide for its future population.

"The main thing that drives population growth is employment, and not necessarily retail jobs, but permanent industrial and manufacturing jobs," St. Romaine said. "We want to know if a certain manufacturer comes to Columbia, what that will mean to the city in terms of population."

St. Romaine said the city now relies on information from the U.S. Census Bureau for its population-growth estimates. For more than a decade, the university’s CPAC has examined how economic issues influence growth in communities, and it has provided plans to manage growth through land use and infrastructure planning.

Development of the model will cost $25,000, with the city and the university splitting the cost equally. During the first phase of the project, CPAC will conduct a baseline study of Columbia and Boone County demographics to analyze population data. During this phase, a community advisory panel will oversee and provide feedback on the information-gathering process.

St. Romaine said next month the city will invite eight to 15 people to serve on the panel to ensure it represents a cross-section of the community. "We want to make sure we have the various different interests represented," he said.

During the second phase of the project, CPAC will provide a model that will give population data based on different scenarios.

Fourth Ward Councilman Jerry Wade, an outspoken advocate for growth-management planning, said good information is necessary to allow the city to stay ahead of population growth.

"I think you have to have an idea of what growth is occurring and have a comprehensive plan, and I think you have to combine that with development fees and infrastructure that occurs with public investments," Wade said. "This will give us a sense of what we’ll be dealing with and give us an idea of what we need to do to address it with policy and other things to prepare."

St. Romaine said the CPAC project will dovetail with the recently ratified visioning process, which outlines several goals regarding growth management and infrastructure for Columbia during the next 20 years.

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