Democrats have a chance to make gains in the coming midterm elections. Everybody says so, mainly because of gaffes by President George W. Bush and the Republicans.

Thus, running against the incumbents - always a necessary strategy - seems more promising than usual for 2008. By a substantial margin, Americans say they would rather see Congress in Democratic than Republican hands.

But Democrats seem mired, unable to cash in. Much of the reason is the party’s inability to find traction with the Iraq war.

Most Americans now oppose the war and blame Bush for launching it on false pretenses and for conducting it awkwardly. You would think Democrats could make great strides simply by being against the war. But what does that mean? Once their opposition becomes the slightest bit specific, it runs into a curious national mentality. We all want to end the war, but we don’t want to "cut and run."

"Cut and run" is not merely a semantic slogan, though Republicans use it as such. It represents in most minds a serious deviation from current hold-the-line policies, a frightening change we don’t yet support. Gripe as we might, we do not think it’s time, if it ever will be, to abandon our occupation policies in Iraq.

This fact leaves the Democrats in a real pickle, out in left field, so to speak. Their debate with Republicans over the war looks like nothing but partisan bickering since it can’t be translated into a substantial policy platform the public will embrace.

Thus, the party develops fractures. Serious presidential aspirants such as Hillary Clinton will not embrace strident anti-war policies, essentially supporting the current Bush position. A principled war supporter such as Sen. Joe Lieberman has trouble getting his party’s nomination for re-election but promises he will become an independent rather than change his stripes. Whether this will get him sent back to Congress is doubtful, but my hunch is he will run a credible race unburdened by the trappings of either party.

Nobody likes the situation in Iraq, but most people think the administration is doing its best under tough circumstances to maintain an environment that might give an indigenous government a chance to gain control. A thin thread perhaps, but much more substantial than anything the Democrats can throw out.

So, can Democrats win elections with this handicap? Yes, providing other issues can transcend the war. That the war is such an overwhelming issue makes the chore harder, but not impossible in certain congressional and, even more so, state legislative races.

Democrats would do better not to pick fights with Bush over Iraq, unsatisfying as that option might seem.

Hope is not the same as joy that things are going well, or willingness to invest in enterprises that are obviously headed for early success, but, rather, an ability to work for something because it is good, not just because it stands a chance to succeed.

- Vaclav Havel, president of the Czech Republic